Gain insight into the thought process behind our forecasts and the key themes propelling growth for the upcoming year.
As we close out the latest round of our US forecast revisions, this comprehensive report reveals the assumptions driving our spring 2024 data updates on US retailers. Our assumptions fall into three main categories:
-
Macroeconomic: These are the core macro-level assumptions that we expect will drive the retail industry over the next five years.
-
Channel and format: These are the channel and format positionings, organized alphabetically by channel/format, that we expect to see over the next five years.
-
Retailer and banner: These assumptions fuel our five-year sales, store, and square-footage projections for key retailers and banners.
About Our Forecasting Process
The assumptions detailed in this report shape our US retail forecasting update, which follows this general process:
- When: While we regularly track and revise our forecasts to provide the most accurate and timely views of the industry, we also conduct a wide-scale US data audit in the spring and fall that includes updates to our forecasts. Each spring we roll our US forecasts forward by one year.
- How: Kantar’s retail forecasts are driven by a proprietary methodology and store-based ramp-up formula that is tailored to each retailer banner, which then rolls up to the retailer, channel/format, and market levels.
- What: This report provides the high-level assumptions shaping our latest US retail forecast revisions, which will be reflected on Retail IQ in mid-May. This forecast reflects retailer announcements through May 1, 2024.
- Who: A strong collective effort goes into every major forecasting update we do. This report highlights inputs from across our analyst team. For questions about specific macro, channel/format, or retailer-level assumptions, please contact us.
To purchase the full report and research materials, contact the Kantar team at switchon@kantar.com
