US Retail Forecast 2022


Data and context to drive informed 5-year planning


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November 2022

Kantar’s retail forecasts of the largest and most strategically significant retailers will support short-and long-term planning

Our biannual retail forecast update incorporates the latest shifts in the ever-changing state of the economy and shopping behaviors. We adjust our figures to give an accurate look back at the unprecedented trends and retailer performance of 2020, 2021, and 2022 as well as project retail performance into 2027 and the intervening years. 

As we close out the latest round of our US forecast revisions, this comprehensive report reveals the assumptions driving our fall 2022 data updates on US retailers. Our assumptions fall into three main categories:
  • Macroeconomic: These are the core macro-level assumptions that we expect will drive the retail industry over the next five years.
  • Channel and format: These are the channel and format positionings that we expect to see over the next five years.
  • Retailer and banner: These assumptions fuel our five-year sales, store, and square-footage projections for key retailers and banners.
Our forecasting process answers key questions about retail, positioning our clients for growth:
  • When: We conduct a wide-scale US data audit and update our 5-year forecasts twice per year.
  • How: Our retail forecasts are driven by a proprietary methodology with a store-based ramp-up model tailored to each retail banner, then rolled up to retailer, channel/format, and market levels.
  • What: This report incorporates the high-level assumptions shaping our latest US retail updates and expectations for growth.
  • Who: Our team of dedicated retail analysts track the industry year-round to produce insightful data and forecasts.

Kantar's Retail IQ research methodology

Scope of research

10-year history and 5-year forecasts of sales and store growth by retail banner. Rich in-depth research and analysis by Kantar’s dedicated retail analysts.

Retailer coverage

Retailers with USD 2 billion annual retail sales and key format leaders. Bottom-up analysis starting at the banner-and format-level for every retail account.

Category coverage

Sales from all retail categories are reflected in our retailer history and forecasting database.

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How can you utilize our US Retail Forecast?

New business development targeting

The global nature of our database enables country level prioritization and planning:

  • Identify countries with high growth potential
  • Find key retailers in high-potential regions 
  • Channel based new business opportunities can be identified and made dimensional

Account coverage decision making

Supplier clients use our historical and forecast data, as well as our Report Builder to determine:

  • Direct/broker coverage decisions
  • Retail customers best served by a direct team versus covered by brokers
  • Bases for determining the rate and payout agreements

Customer segmentation

Pressure test your internal customer segmentation models with Kantar’s forecast to:

  • Align growth strategies with retail winners
  • Find comprehensive viewpoints to determine retailer and channel performers near term, and project five years out
  • Make decisions on by account invest, harvest, and sunset with banner forecasts


Kantar's Retail, Sales,
and Shopper Experts

Answering your most pressing questions related to retail commerce.

Karl Berner
Director, Global Data Strategy and Operations
Taylor Galland
Taylor Galland
Principal Analyst
Rohini Birla
Global Data Manager